In article , Wolf K
wrote:


Um have you browsed Staples, etc lately? Even low-end tablets are
selling well, at the one I visit most, there are more tablets than
laptops displayed.

what's on display in a store is not an indication of how well they're
actually selling.

With Staples and the Source, it usually is. They don't restock stuff
that takes too long to sell. That is relegated to their online store,
and quite often isn't restocked there either. Retail is brutal.

you have no idea what their stock level is or how many units they move
per day/week/month.

True, but I do have an idea about what's on display, and what's on sale.
That tells you a lot about what they're trying to move.

trying to move != actually moving.




a major example is adobe's recent announcement that the full photoshop
is coming to ipad. that's a major undertaking, something they would not
have done had there been no demand for it.

Yup, it's a recognition that more and more people want tablets to be
full-fledged computers.

tablets *are* full fledged computers, and in many cases, can do things
a desktop or laptop cannot, often in a more pleasant or more productive
way.

To imitate you style: "That depends on the tablet."

not really.

even a low end tablet can do things that a desktop/laptop can't.

it depends on the specific task. pick the best tool for the job.

IOW, that the Surface has shown us the future of
personal computing. See also the "convertible" laptops.

no it definitely hasn't.

convertible laptops try to combine desktop and touch, two very
different paradigms, and don't do either one all that well.

The desktop is
already a niche market, the laptop is trending that way too.

you're confusing mature with niche.

Nope. A market can be mature without being niche, eg SUVs. The desktop
happens to be both. It matured before it became a niche, which AFAICT is
the usual sequence.

desktop/laptops are anything but niche.

suvs can be considered a niche. most people don't need them. usually
there's only one person inside (the driver), perhaps two.

A year or
three from now, people will be whinging about how tablets aren't real
computers,

they have been doing that since tablets first appeared, mostly from
people who don't know what a tablet can actually do.

True, but just watch what happens when laptops become a niche. They're
well on the way.

no they aren't.

mobile will become more common, but there will still be a need for
laptops and even desktops.

just like they whinged that laptops weren't real computers.

yep, they did that too, and soon realized their mistake.

True, which is why the the latest Get_Your_Stuff_For_Christmas flyers
here doesn't show a single desktop. All laptops and tablets.

laptops have outsold desktops for more than a decade.

many people said anything with a gui wasn't real computer, something
dumbed down for the masses. they were wrong about that too.

True. They said such devices were toys.

and they were wrong.

FWIW, this big box is getting to be a PITA. It's big and bulky, and
offers no real advantage over a laptop or high-end tablet. I need the
space for other purposes, and will dispose of this machine within the
next 6 months or less. I doubt I'll find a buyer, and may not even be
able to give it away.

there's very little demand for used pcs, although you might be able to
flip it at a swap meet.

No such event here, unfortunately.

that sucks. it's a great way to buy and sell cheap hardware without the
hassles and expense of shipping, especially for hard to find items or
large & heavy items.

there are also ****loads of vertical market apps for tablets,
particularly health care, but also education, restaurants and much
more.

Yes, but these aren't for most people. They are business/profession
specific.

it shows that tablets can do a *lot* more than just surf the web, email
and play videos.

Sure, but most people don't care about that.

sez you.

Which was my point: it';s
not abouit what the device could do, but what people want it to do.

and they want it to do more than just surf, email and watch videos.

the number of tablet optimized apps (at least on the ipad) is clear
proof of that.

Our devices are overpowered as it is. Sending a email with a any current
deviec is like sending a single post card with a 747.

for some things they are overpowered, but for other things they are not.

computational photography, for example, especially when done in real
time, is pushing the limits of today's technology.

augmented reality and gaming are also areas which push the limits.

Some tablets are being
offered with 4G, ie, you can use them as a phone if you want. Some
people want.

4g on tablets is for data, not voice, so that one can be connected when
wifi is not available, and since it's data-only, the fees are less.

A recent flyer from our local pusher highlighted the phone feature.

that means nothing.

Oh yes it does. It indicates that the marketers have decided that it's a
feature that quite a lot of people either already want, or will want as
soon as they realise they can have it. If marketing sees a possible
increase in margin, that's significant. Of course, it may turn out
they've over-interpreted their data, but it's too soon to tell.

all it indicates is that they want to sell a particular product, often
because it isn't selling that well and they need to move inventory to
make room for new stuff that's coming.

successful products don't need a push.

what matters is whether people buy it for that purpose and actually use
it that way.

Fact is, a lot of stuff is sold on features that people will never use.
It's the reason so many people buy pickup trucks.

some stuff might be, but that doesn't last. people aren't fooled for
very long.

I've
noticed that people often hold the phone face up like a mini-tablet and
talk at it, not into it.

i've noticed that too. it's very weird.

Yeah, but now that I have to waer hearing aids, I fully underrtsnad it.

most people i see doing that are under 30.

older people use a phone like they always have, held up to their ear...

So a tablet with phone is an obvious next step
I think.

it isn't.

who wants to carry a tablet-sized phone everywhere??

You have a point, but then, who wants to carry two devices if one will
do the job?

that's why phablets have become popular. it displays more content than
a smaller phone but without the inconvenience of a larger tablet.

however, one device doing the job of two will always be a compromise.

some might choose a smaller phone for every day use and bring a tablet
or laptop only when necessary, while others will accept the compromises
of one device.

People will buy all kinds of stuff because they think it's
practical. Practical is a variety of cool, and cool is powerful. Data
point: My dad bought a Klepperboot, a bundle of canvas and sticks that
could be unfolded into something resembling a boat. He used it once.

that decision was not based on practicality.




It could
turn out that the current large smartphones are too big for handy
phoning, but too small for handy computing. We'll see. A recent
resurgence in flip-phones suggests that a lot of people still aren't
surer exactly what they want a phone to be.

what resurgence? flipphone sales are lost in the noise. they could
double and nobody would notice, nor care.

I've seen flip phones featured as a fashion accessory. Pay attention to
that. When a device become a fashion accessory, all reasonable
speculations about its future are off.

flippers aren't selling anywhere near as much as smartphones and
they're not fashion accessories either.

smartphone cases are the fashion accessories, ranging from amusing to
impractical:
https://www.boredpanda.com/coolest-iphone-cases/
https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51i8XbyOl-L.jpg
https://www.youngisthan.in/userfiles...ush-iphone-cas
e.jpg

otherwise, most phones are very boring looking.

About 5 years ago I argued that a handy size for a (smart) phone would
about that of a paperback. I was ridiculed. But the Samsung S9 is about
as tall as a paperback, but narrower (and of course thinner). The latest
iPhone is in the same size-range. So I wasn't far off.

the dell streak was the first 5" phone and people thought it was
stupid. it failed (and not just due to size).

a year or two later, samsung came out with the note, mostly so it could
have a larger battery that could last longer than a few hours (early
lte chipsets were *very* power-hungry). it sold well, much to
everyone's surprise.

Not to those who paid attention to fashion. In an over-producing economy
like ours, fashion drives at least 50% of the market. Ignore it at your
peril.

not so much in tech.

If you see any hints that the iPhone is no longer cool, sell your
Apple stock. (The biz pages recently reported that Apple has lost a few
mil in capitalisation because iPhone sales have slipped in the last
quarter or two: a straw in the wind, or just a hiccup? We'll see.)

iphone sales have not slipped.

the reason for the recent drop in the stock price was that apple will
no longer report unit sales for each product and wall street is freaked
out about it, yet for some reason, they don't seem to mind that very
few other companies report unit sales.

amazon says the kindle sells well, but how many exactly? nobody outside
of amazon knows.

there is also a lot of market manipulation going on (it happens every
quarter). fabricate a story, the stock price drops, forming a wonderful
buy-op, and then cash in on the rebound. apple stock is already up 5%
from last week's low.

and it's not just apple. bloomberg news, as a matter of corporate
policy, is to write stories that manipulate the market. witness their
bull**** story about hacked servers.