On 12/3/2013 16:05, ...winston wrote:
xfile wrote, On 12/2/2013 11:53 PM:
The old-guard approach is changing..but, still too many
good-old-boys in
the enterprise driven financial approval process to risk change (and
still seen as change for the sake of change) in the big-bucks
corporate
world.

Fully agreed. No rational manager will change perfectly working systems
for the sake of change including OS upgrade not to mention for business
applications and backbone systems.

Look at the Windows XP's share which,still, is stubbornly taking around
30%.

And that is why I mentioned "It's not going to change anytime soon, but
it's "enterprises.""

However, the point is that the synergy created by the server products,
client OS, development tools, Office, and consumer service is falling
apart and each category is being attacked heavily by competitors.

When new investments on backbone systems are not bound by Windows
platforms, the linkage between the back- and front-end is broken which
means that it doesn't have to use client Windows as the front-end
interface.

So, the old mentality and approach of using business requirements to
creating/forcing consumer needs will not work - for long.

The PDF format afiacs is a logical one due to the ability to commonize
file type and protect the distribution of proprietary information in
documents.

One of the best things coming out of the whole Web-based thing is that
everything is moving, though gradually, to standard protocols and
formats, and PDF is just one of them. And platform will become/is
becoming a less important factor.

Where will it end up ? Maybe your plan will prove true....but imo, your
plan to 'move away' with any significant impact on market based adoption
is a decade away.

A decade would be an optimistic estimate And it's not my plan, sort
of speaking. As they say, Rome wasn't built nor burnt in a day.


Adaptation is necessary well in advance of that
possible objective.

It is happening just in case you didn't notice. Consumer and business
are delaying their purchase/upgrade on Windows PCs.

New investments on backbone systems are gradually moving away from
Windows platforms especially for SMB's and some enterprises.

Windows-based devices are taking a relatively small percentage of the
market share.

Again, the old mentality and approach of using business requirements to
creating/forcing consumer needs will not work - for long.

They need to create something decent to *re-attract* the market, and the
current approach (e.g. Windows 8.x) isn't going to work.



I don't see the XP share of 30% as stubborn, a short time ago it was
hovering around about 43%. 13% is a significant drop and like other
o/s when extended support ends any stubbornness rapidly dissipates.

The real competition is centered on the smart devices. The enterprise
and SMB environments have been slow to develop plans to permit use of
smart devices. Originally it was fear of wifi, which was mostly based on
some of that same good-old-boy IT power struggle/politics (protect our
domain and livelihood) and completely missing the real issue of how to
adapt and accommodate the inevitable use of those devices. That IT power
play attempt was upset when high level business decision managers
started showing up at work with iPads and other smart devices realizing
that use of provided faster and more productive communication which does
lend credence to the presence of competition but not necessarily
adoption of same.

Additionally, the majority of the user base (consumer, smb, and
enterprise) has years of hands-on experience using MSFT products and
weaning and retraining that entire population to something else is not
economical.

Consumer and business delays relative to purchase/upgrade isn't really
about Windows...it's foundation has different reasons for consumers vs.
business. The former - disposable income has been stagnant for quite
some time, the latter - the desire to increase cash flow and reserves
fearing another downturn or global recessionary phase. Though neither of
these are sustainable reasons since the need and method to communication
has changed - i.e. adapt or lose the ability to communicate on all
fronts (home-work-everywhere)

Agreed, MSFT does need to address the shortcomings of the Win8x style,
but under-the-hood (push the UI aside) and its pretty much Win7 on
steroids (faster, more secure, and capable of sync with multiple smart
devices). Throw in the expiration of security updates for XP with its
soon-to-be bigger bulls-eye vulnerability and it should be pretty
obvious that MSFT is perfectly comfortable with first moving that 30% XP
base to Win7 or Win8 since any delay for that population
(hardware/software) is short term.

Which then leaves what direction does Win8/Win X.x go. Win 8.0/8.1 is
culture shock but necessary to change the model. Wherever it goes, its
closer to the future model than most may realize (or even willing to
admit).




Certain smart devices (e.g. blackberry) have been well integrated into
the business environment for a while, except with this kind of scale.

Although economic condition is a factor, but the real determinant factor
is the combination of diminishing return of replacing computers
including upgrading to a new version of Windows AND moving to Web-based
applications including office and business applications.

In general, we are going back to the "thin client" era for which we are
not going to need more and more horsepower for client computers, and
smart devices (not necessarily with a touch screen) are just part of the
thin client movement.

And as I mentioned, when everything is gradually moving to Web-based,
protocols and formats are going to be standardized, platform is less an
issue (i.e. you can use Office 365 Web on PC, Mac, and Linux) and
training for back-end systems or front-end interface are not going to be
as difficult as the days when people were bound by proprietary
standards, protocols, and formats.

Whatever direction the company may go, the days of platform war - once
you are committed to a platform, you are bound by it, is quickly going away.

That means they can quick thinking about their leverage power (forcing
people to upgrade) and better have a brand new start.