Interesting article on SOF's (w10's) impact on pc's

T wrote:
On 04/28/2015 10:51 PM, . . .winston wrote:
T wrote:

http://www.infoworld.com/article/291...ve-the-pc.html



Useless article.

Windows 10 isn't aimed at the consumer pc or saving it...it should be
clear to anyone that in the long term it's trajectory and design intent
is aimed directly at Enterprise and smartdevices (business and
consumer). That market across the entire planet in case anyone missed
it, has become the norm.

Whether we like it or not how we communicate has changed. Email is too
burdensome and slow and counterproductive in the Enterprise environment
(too much waste not adding value to company objectives). In the next
decade smart devices will become the primary means of data management.

Plan now, the direction is changing faster than anyone can complain
about it. Don't let the RC factor (resistance to change) become your mo.


Hi Winston,

Part of what you say its true. What you are missing is that
iPad (the only serious tablet) have plunged. Everyone that
whats one, has one. And those that have one, find it works
just fine and are not interested in upgrading.

Also, the PC (desktop) and Tablet are used for dramatically
different purposes. Tablets are for receiving/viewing
information and they excel at it. But they are a NIGHTMARES
for creating information. Desktops are where content
creation happens, including Apps for tablets. As long
as there is creation going on, there will be desktops.

I personally am glad to see low end users move to tablets.
There is not need for them to use/have a full business class
computer. And I am glad not to have to listen to their bitching
over the cost of their upkeep. (One wonders what these guys
must think every time they have to fill their gas tanks and
what kind of tongue lasting the gas station attendant
has to put up with.)

And eMail is here to stay, as business want the paper trail
they provide.

Speaking of old stuff, the legal, real estate, insurance fields
will keep the fax machine around FOREVER!

As far as PC goes, your analogy is good. Information viewers
are pretty much history for the PC. The PC really need
to focus on the actual market, which is information creators.
M$'s Frankenstein family of operating systems (w8 and w10)
is not helping.

-T
Some of what you say is true, but imo, it still has a bit of tunnel
vision. Everyone looks at the status of the past market sales through
the last quarter and year to year comparisions.

The volume of sales is still significant and the Asian and Pacific Rim
markets have yet to evolve out of infancy.

The future will change, and not by us or current users but by the future
disposable (discretionary and essential) income of the next, soon-to-be
20-30's generation.

--
...winston
msft mvp consumer apps

On Wed, 29 Apr 2015 17:29:42 -0500, VanguardLH wrote:

When I've seen users (not companies) switch to a newer version of
Windows, it wasn't because their current suite of apps suddenly changed
their system requirements so that a newer version of Windows was needed.
Everything was already working for them. What type of applications push
the consumer market to get newer versions of Windows and newer hardware?
Games.

I think you're asking the wrong question when you ask what type of
applications push the consumer market to upgrade their version of Windows.
Much more often than games, it's probably just a matter of buying new
hardware and taking the OS that happens to come with it.

VanguardLH wrote:

Char Jackson wrote:

I think you're asking the wrong question when you ask what type of
applications push the consumer market to upgrade their version of
Windows. Much more often than games, it's probably just a matter of
buying new hardware and taking the OS that happens to come with it.

I forgot all about the consumers that buy pre-builts with
pre-installed software. To some extent, they don't have a choice
what comes pre-installed in the pre-built desktop or laptop that they
buy. Of course, they're making the choice to leave their old
hardware with the old OS and all those apps that were still working.
They come under the "newer is better" trained consumers that I
mentioned.

From my readings so far, Windows 10's initial penetration will be via
upgrade. None of those users had to upgrade. Nothing they have now and
perhaps for another 2+ years will demand Windows 10 as a minimum system
requirement. All those upgrade migrations to Windows 10 will be due to
the new-is-better trained consumers that I mentioned.

New sales of pre-builts that come with pre-installed OS+bundleware are
yet unknown. Has anyone [been foolish enough to] project new sales
figures for Windows 10 whether it be a standalone purchase of Windows 10
(since the free upgrade won't apply to everyone, especially businesses)
or pre-installed on pre-builts? Or, this time, is everyone remaining
mute considering the Vista and 8 flops?

At Newegg, there are far more pre-builts and laptops that come with
Windows 7 pre-installed than have Windows 8 pre-installed. Windows XP
comes in at a far distant 3rd but still beats Windows Vista for
pre-installed OSes on pre-builts and laptops. Will be interesting to
see how many hardware vendors wade into Windows 10 pre-installs on their
hardware. They'll probably be forced due to contractual obligations
with Microsoft, or their volume reseller licensing dries up and they
don't have a choice but to move to pre-installing Windows 10.

With the dilution of new sales of Windows 10 due to the infusion of its
licenses via upgrade, I suspect initial sales of Windows 10 standalone
to be dismal (excepting volume licenses purchased by businesses -- if
they decide to migrate to Windows 10) and new sales of pre-builts and
laptops not primarily driven with them having Windows 10. There are
some consumers that are willing to bleed with a new OS but many
consumers want their computers to work from the get-go. With Microsoft
doling out free upgrades, where's the impetus for hardware vendors to
pre-install Windows 10 unless they are forced by Microsoft?

Unlike the past where consumers were drawn to buy new pre-builts to have
someone else do a pre-install of the OS (so they didn't have to do that
admin stuff on their old hardware), the free upgrade for Windows 10
looks to severely cut into that consumer marketshare. Why buy new
hardware when you can upgrade to the new OS for free?

Sometimes you just cannot predict the market. To me, Windows 10 new
sales figures will likely be dismal (except for volume license sales).
Consumers won't have to abandon their old pre-builts to get a newer OS.
Yet who would've thought you'd have to navigate the ridicuously long
lines at the malls for parents kowtowing to their crazed kids waiting to
buy Beanie Babies and Cabbage Patch dolls? Marketing is everything. If
marketed right, you can sell crap for a profit. There are still sales
of 3-inch Golden Gate Bridge momentos selling at $235 apiece. There was
some guy that decided to auction his pocket change at eBay and got some
insanely high bids (I think eBay yanked his auction). There are suckers
everywhere. That's why spam still lives.

VanguardLH wrote:
VanguardLH wrote:

At Newegg, there are far more pre-builts and laptops that come with
Windows 7 pre-installed than have Windows 8 pre-installed. Windows XP
comes in at a far distant 3rd but still beats Windows Vista for
pre-installed OSes on pre-builts and laptops. Will be interesting to
see how many hardware vendors wade into Windows 10 pre-installs on their
hardware. They'll probably be forced due to contractual obligations
with Microsoft, or their volume reseller licensing dries up and they
don't have a choice but to move to pre-installing Windows 10.

With the dilution of new sales of Windows 10 due to the infusion of its
licenses via upgrade, I suspect initial sales of Windows 10 standalone
to be dismal (excepting volume licenses purchased by businesses -- if
they decide to migrate to Windows 10) and new sales of pre-builts and
laptops not primarily driven with them having Windows 10. There are
some consumers that are willing to bleed with a new OS but many
consumers want their computers to work from the get-go. With Microsoft
doling out free upgrades, where's the impetus for hardware vendors to
pre-install Windows 10 unless they are forced by Microsoft?

Unlike the past where consumers were drawn to buy new pre-builts to have
someone else do a pre-install of the OS (so they didn't have to do that
admin stuff on their old hardware), the free upgrade for Windows 10
looks to severely cut into that consumer marketshare. Why buy new
hardware when you can upgrade to the new OS for free?

There's a piece of that pie that needs to be noted.

Upgrade from Win7 or Win8.1 to Win10 yields a retail MSFT supported o/s
for all o/s (retail and OEM)...which would appear to be contractual
bargaining tool to relieve OEM's of their OEM support responsibility
(i.e. less expense, staff, cost for the old and incentive in one form to
pre-build devices with Win10 new OEM).





--
...winston
msft mvp consumer apps

On Wed, 29 Apr 2015 12:34:07 -0700, T wrote:

When I write SOF (w10), I always write in parenthesis what I mean,
so those not familiar with my writing can tell.

I suspect many of those familiar with your writing have consigned it
to the killfile so no worries there.

On Wed, 29 Apr 2015 21:29:22 -0500, VanguardLH wrote:

Char Jackson wrote:

On Wed, 29 Apr 2015 17:29:42 -0500, VanguardLH wrote:

When I've seen users (not companies) switch to a newer version of
Windows, it wasn't because their current suite of apps suddenly changed
their system requirements so that a newer version of Windows was needed.
Everything was already working for them. What type of applications push
the consumer market to get newer versions of Windows and newer hardware?
Games.

I think you're asking the wrong question when you ask what type of
applications push the consumer market to upgrade their version of Windows.
Much more often than games, it's probably just a matter of buying new
hardware and taking the OS that happens to come with it.

I forgot all about the consumers that buy pre-builts with pre-installed
software. To some extent, they don't have a choice what comes
pre-installed in the pre-built desktop or laptop that they buy. Of
course, they're making the choice to leave their old hardware with the
old OS and all those apps that were still working. They come under the
"newer is better" trained consumers that I mentioned.

In addition to the "newer is better" crowd, there's the "I let the smoke
out" crowd. They want to buy a working replacement. That group, being
somewhat ill informed (because that's the purpose of marketing), may opt for
Win 10 or even Win 8, not realizing that Win 7 is usually a better choice.

On 04/29/2015 02:13 PM, VanguardLH wrote:
Wasn't Frankenstein first applied to Windows 8 [Preview]? That would
make 8.1 the Son of Frankenstein and Windows 10 would be the grandson of
Frankenstein. It's obvious that using this term is less accurate than
using the version numbers.

Think of 8.1 as Frankenstein the Elders' new set of dentures.

:-)

On 04/30/2015 11:25 AM, Stormin' Norman wrote:
On Tue, 28 Apr 2015 19:58:55 -0500, Rene Lamontagne wrote:

On 4/28/2015 7:42 PM, Stormin' Norman wrote:
On Tue, 28 Apr 2015 19:30:53 -0500, Rene Lamontagne wrote:

On 4/28/2015 4:01 PM, Stormin' Norman wrote:
On Tue, 28 Apr 2015 15:50:35 -0500, Rene Lamontagne wrote:

On 4/28/2015 2:45 PM, T wrote:

http://www.infoworld.com/article/291...ve-the-pc.html

Yep, another moron yelling The PC is Dead, The sky is falling, What a
stupid jerk

What did he write which you felt was inaccurate or less than insightful?



What PC dilemma?


Is that is your only criticism? Do you take issue with anything in the body of
the article?



Basically he seems to be biased towards Apple and it shows badly in his
article, He certainly is not going to say anything good about Microsoft
therefore making his article rather useless.


Thanks for sharing your opinions.

IMHO the article was insightful but relied too heavily upon jargon.

In general, I feel Apple has invented and continues to employ the marketing and
technology formulas / algorithms which make it's products, in select segments,
appeal to a majority of consumers. Apple understands that human nature is to
resist change, so, in general, Apple's user interface changes are more graduated
than those of Microsoft, whereas MS seems to feel it appropriate to jam down our
throats, on a regular basis, their shifts in UI paradigms.

Additionally, Apple has been very successful in producing and selling products
which smoothly integrate into most aspects of daily life. Microsoft still
dominates the business desktop. As I am not prone to prognostication or
speculation, I have no idea if MS will retain that dominance. It seems to me
there currently exists a tremendous opportunity for Apple or some flavor of
Linux to topple the king of the business hill.

As more and more applications migrate to being web-hosted, the opportunities
increase for more stable, more secure and less expensive desktop operating
systems to become firmly entrenched in the business environment.

As it seems the majority of consumers utilize technology for sound bite style
communication, entertainment and multimedia, it is only logical that smartphones
and tablets will far outstrip, in numbers, desktop workstations of all
varieties.

All that said, I am not found of the Apple UI paradigm, it seems to be designed
more for those who employ fragmented thinking than for those whose thought
processes are predominantly linear.

I am quite fond of the approach used by various flavors of Linux and have been
very impressed with RHEL for my enterprise servers and a number of my desktop
workstations.

The article was thought provoking, especially for those who approach it with an
open mind and without prejudice, IMHO.


Hi Stormin',

A very thoughtful article. I very much enjoyed it.

Linux and Apple both have the same "catch 22" problem. They
are both far superior to Windows. But, few will develop
apps for the two because Linux's and Apple's install base is so
small. And, few will upgrade to Linux or Apple because there
are so few apps for them. Catch 22. (If Vista didn't change
that situation ...)

I was with a customer yesterday that had to rip out
his Mac because Quick Books for Mac does not support
pay role. (Quick Books for Mac is horrible anyway.)

-T

On Wed, 29 Apr 2015 01:51:20 -0400, ". . .winston"
wrote:

Whether we like it or not how we communicate has changed. Email is too
burdensome and slow and counterproductive in the Enterprise environment
(too much waste not adding value to company objectives).

Instant messaging has added possibilities of communication but cannot
replace email in a business environment. For legal reasons I (small
business owner) have to keep (and backup) emails for 10 years. Try
this with other means of electronic communications. Perhaps it`s
possible, but for email it`s established and cheap (my Thunderbird
contains 1.2 million emails, desktop search engines (X1, Copernic)
make use of them easy).

In the next
decade smart devices will become the primary means of data management.

What is smart in a device that is a stripped down, miniaturized
version of a full PC? I like my several Android devices, they have
replaced my PCs (Windows) for special purposes (feedly, navigation,
wheather forecasts, short emails), but cannot replace it fully.

Win 10 on new, stronger mobiles (supporting two, independant screens)
will be able turn every monitor with a keyboard into a full PC (first
video is in english):
http://www.chip.de/video/Microsoft-p..._78791266.html
Video: Microsoft presents: Windows 10 Continuum - Feature

But for security reasons I never would do confidential work (Quicken
(electronic banking), planning for clients) in such a mobile
environment. I need my private rooms for that. Or at least my own,
encrypted laptop, because monitors and keyboards by third parties can
be manipulated.

Don't let the RC factor (resistance to change) become your mo.

I really like the outlook, that a Win 10 mobile device can turn
monitors into a terminal client for connecting to my terminal server
in office (RDP over Hamachi). But as written above, security will
often be a reason not to use this feature.

And Windows Phone is a bit too restricted at the moment, missing some
essential APIs (e. g. API for networking for apps like "Wifi Analyzer"
or "Fing" on Android):
http://forums.windowscentral.com/win...sible-wp8.html
Perhaps that`s a reason, why a VPN app like Logmein Hamachi is not
available for Windows Phone:
http://community.logmein.com/t5/Hama...one/td-p/75535

(Hamachi runs on Android, at least on some...)

So at them moment I don`t believe, that MS will be able to pull me
back into a Windows only environment.

Regards

M.

On Wed, 29 Apr 2015 12:48:29 -0700, T wrote:

Speaking of old stuff, the legal, real estate, insurance fields
will keep the fax machine around FOREVER!

19 years after founding my dental office with telephone and email
only, I finally gave in a few weeks ago and bought a fax machine
(Epson WorkForce Pro WF-4630DWF)...

Regards

M.

On Fri, 01 May 2015 20:15:16 +0000, Stormin' Norman
wrote:

Platform specific applications appear to have a limited future. For example,
your client could have subscribed to the Quickbooks online service, which does
include payroll, if I am not mistaken.

Putting essential business information into a web service of which no
one knows, whether it will be still available in 10 years? Sorry, I
much prefer Quicken on my XP in a VM (VMWare Player).
I don`t know, why the Mac had to be "pulled out" because of
Quickbooks. Adding a virtual machine with Windows would have sufficed,
I assume.

Regards

M.

On Tue, 28 Apr 2015 12:45:10 -0700, T wrote:

http://www.infoworld.com/article/291...ve-the-pc.html

As far as I remember: Gruman is a Apple fan boy and was ridiculously
wrong about the development of the market share of Android.

I think "Continuum" will be the next big thing, because a mobile will
become everything most people need. A PC (Windows Phone) in your
pocket, and when coming home connect it wirelessly with your TV and a
keyboard and have a thing almost as good as a PC.

Microsoft with Win 10 may kill the PC for many people. MS is in the
business of selling software and services and mobile hardware, not in
selling desktop PCs or hardware for servers.

(Continuum is not for me, I assume, as I already wrote in this thread.
But as a health professional and computer geek my demands for IT are
higher than those of most consumers and office workers who will be
perfectly happy with a Windows Phone doubling as a desktop.)

Regards

M.

On Fri, 01 May 2015 21:53:02 +0000, Stormin' Norman
wrote:

Many cloud applications are just that, the application runs from the cloud but
your data is still local. I am not sure how Intuit does it, but if you don't
trust Intuit with your data online (backed up locally) then it would also make
no sense to trust an Intuit application with your local data.

Local data without a working cloud app is almost useless. What do you
do with your data when Intuit goes out of business and you have no
local software as Quicken or Quickbooks for reading and analyzing this
data? In a VM I can easily move data and local software through many
years.

Regards

M.

On Fri, 01 May 2015 21:53:02 +0000, Stormin' Norman
wrote:

but if you don't
trust Intuit with your data online (backed up locally) then it would also make
no sense to trust an Intuit application with your local data.

And that`s also wrong because I can cut internet connectivity for the
VM and still use the software, keying in data manually. I even may
transfer online data via a safe way (USB-Stick, CD-ROM, shared
directory) from an internet connected PC to the VM, never exposing all
the financial data in the VM to the internet.

Regards

M.

On Fri, 01 May 2015 22:56:21 +0000, Stormin' Norman
wrote:

However, if one wishes to utilize online integrated payments and numerous other
features, applications such as Quickbooks must be able to communicate with the
financial institution directly.

In germany we do this since 25 years or so. I have never written
cheques. Before online was available, Quicken generated a file with
the planned transfers and the file was brought to the bank on a disk.
And vice versa. Maybe this is still available, I don`t know.
In germany Quicken is sold, but it`s not from Intuit any more. Intuit
sold the german quicken brand some years ago to german Lexware. So I
don`t have to trust Intuit. ;-)

Regards

M.