Who is next in line to run Microsoft? Some dot-headed Indian jobthief?

Guessing who might replace Steve Ballmer has always been
something of a parlor game for Microsoft watchers.

And now that Ballmer’s departure is pending, the answer to who
will follow him remains as much a mystery as ever. There is no
single clear successor to a lightning rod of a leader who
remains one of the most identifiable CEOs in the country.

What’s more, the next CEO may well have a far different job than
the one Ballmer is vacating. Once the dominant force in
technology, Microsoft now finds itself chasing companies in key
businesses such as Google in Web search and Apple in mobile
devices.

“I don’t think there’s someone who could do a better job than
Steve. It’s a really, really hard problem, perhaps intractable
as currently defined,” said Brad Silverberg, the former Windows
boss who ran the venture-capital firm Ignition Partners in
Bellevue. “I’m not sure there is someone who can do Steve’s job
only ‘better.’ Rather, I think this is a harbinger of big, big
changes to come.”

The once-deep bench of likely successors has been largely
drained over the past several years. Some have left for
leadership positions at other companies, such as former sales
chief Kevin Johnson, who has been chief executive of Juniper
Networks for the past five years, and Stephen Elop, who led
Microsoft’s Business division before becoming chief executive of
Nokia.

Other potential Ballmer successors have walked away from the
company or been pushed out the door. Robbie Bach, who ran
Microsoft’s Entertainment and Devices division, and J Allard,
who led that group’s design effort, were both possible chief
executive candidates. But they both left the company in 2010,
after disagreeing with Ballmer over pursuing a tablet-computing
device that Microsoft decided to shelve.

More recently, Steven Sinofsky, a polarizing leader who ran both
the Office and Windows teams in his 23 years at Microsoft, left
the company in November after a falling out with Ballmer.

So who’s left among the internal candidates to run Microsoft?

Probably the executive at the top of that list is Kevin Turner.
And while the voluble chief operating officer certainly knows
how to manage the company, he doesn’t have the technical
background that might be important to the board as it selects
the next leader. He joined Microsoft in 2005, after serving as
president and chief executive of Sam’s Club.

Another internal candidate whose name gets mentioned is Satya
Nadella, executive vice president of Microsoft’s Cloud and
Enterprise group. Nadella runs a group that continues to churn
out growth and profits.

Tony Bates, the executive vice president of Microsoft’s Business
Development and Evangelism group, is the latest rising star in
the executive ranks in Redmond. Bates joined the company after
Microsoft bought Skype, the video conferencing company that he
ran, in 2011. He’s since been given more power in a recent
reorganization, where he oversees the company’s relationships
with computer makers, software partners and developers. He also
leads Microsoft’s corporate strategy team.

Given the short bench of CEO successors, Microsoft’s board will
no doubt look externally as well. Both Johnson and Elop are
likely to be on the list of candidates they’d call. Juniper has
thrived under Johnson, who announced plans to retire from the
company last month, as networking gear sales have gained from
the flood of Web traffic generated by mobile devices. Nokia,
meanwhile, continues to struggle under Elop, who placed a big
bet that has not panned out on the Windows Phone operating
system to run the company’s devices.

One other former Microsoft executive who could be in the mix:
Paul Maritz. The former Windows boss, who continues to have a
following in Redmond, left Microsoft more than a decade ago.
Since then, he’s served as chief executive of VMware, an arch
competitor of Microsoft’s in virtualization technology. He left
that job and joined Pivotal, a Web-services company, this year
as its CEO.

Another outside candidate who might get consideration is Reed
Hastings, the chief executive of Net-flix. Hastings stepped down
as a Microsoft board member last year, saying then that he
wanted to focus on Netflix. But some have speculated that
Hastings could be next in line for the CEO post because he both
understands Microsoft’s culture and has expertise in consumer
services, an area where Microsoft sometimes stumbles.

Jay Greene: 206-464-2231 or . Twitter:
iamjaygreene

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