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#61
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Intel CPU prices going up?
On 10/15/2018 1:36 PM, VanguardLH wrote:
Every manufacturer has a maximum threshold for producing a product. A bakery can only produce as many loaves of bread per day as they have ovens. By that token, then Intel is one of the largest bakers ever. They cannot exceed that threshold without investing more money when conjecturing long-lived increased demand. Without adding more plants, Intel cannot increase their volume. Adding a plant or extending an existing one costs a lot of money which is only be reasonably qualified for expense if demand is expected to continue indefinitly, not for a minor blip in demand. Demand has gone up and exceeded their manufacturing volume. But that's not the case here. Demand hasn't gone up, it's stayed mostly the same, but they are having trouble supplying even the same number of chips they used to easily supply with previous generations. For the new 8-core i9-9900K, they have apparently only produced about 500 chips overall for the entire world! And so far no i7-9700K's at all! Add in the problems with producing even i3's and i5's, something is wrong, especially on a mature node like 14nm! I think it might have something to do with having to compete against AMD: AMD can put out a 6-core or an 8-core quite easily, it just puts two quad-core CCX's together; but Intel has to create a brand new single die. And the dies are much bigger, so yield must be lower? And today, there was a rumour that they had completely cancelled their 10nm program! Intel denied it later, but usually they don't bother to address rumours unless it really hit close to home. Yousuf Khan |
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#62
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Intel CPU prices going up?
Yousuf Khan wrote:
On 10/15/2018 1:36 PM, VanguardLH wrote: Every manufacturer has a maximum threshold for producing a product. A bakery can only produce as many loaves of bread per day as they have ovens. By that token, then Intel is one of the largest bakers ever. Being largest doesn't mean infinite production capacity. They cannot exceed that threshold without investing more money when conjecturing long-lived increased demand. Without adding more plants, Intel cannot increase their volume. Adding a plant or extending an existing one costs a lot of money which is only be reasonably qualified for expense if demand is expected to continue indefinitly, not for a minor blip in demand. Demand has gone up and exceeded their manufacturing volume. But that's not the case here. Demand hasn't gone up, it's stayed mostly the same, but they are having trouble supplying even the same number of chips they used to easily supply with previous generations. For the new 8-core i9-9900K, they have apparently only produced about 500 chips overall for the entire world! And so far no i7-9700K's at all! Add in the problems with producing even i3's and i5's, something is wrong, especially on a mature node like 14nm! I think it might have something to do with having to compete against AMD: AMD can put out a 6-core or an 8-core quite easily, it just puts two quad-core CCX's together; but Intel has to create a brand new single die. And the dies are much bigger, so yield must be lower? You're obviously making guesses. Demand hasn't gone up despite all the news pundits saying otherwise. "Apparently" is another guess. "In July, during its Q2 conference call, CEO Robert Swan said: ´We are seeing demand signals in supply feasibility to deliver on our revised expectations. Our biggest challenge in the second half will be meeting additional demand, and we are working intently with our customers and our factories to be prepared so we are not constraining our customersÿ growth.¡ No, I don't know everything about their market but it's obvious that you won't even check some of your assumptions. And today, there was a rumour that they had completely cancelled their 10nm program! Intel denied it later, but usually they don't bother to address rumours unless it really hit close to home. Come on back when rumor becomes fact. |
#63
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Intel CPU prices going up?
On 10/23/2018 1:45 PM, VanguardLH wrote:
You're obviously making guesses. Demand hasn't gone up despite all the news pundits saying otherwise. "Apparently" is another guess. We all are, as Intel obviously won't tell us. Anything you or I say will just be guesses. No point in mentioning it even, as it's assumed. But we all have our years of experience to draw on, and our guesses can be somewhat accurate. Intel is having to produce six- and eight-core processors when it's used to producing only quad-core maximum. It produced a lot of good dies of quad-core, but a hex- or octa-core will have larger dies, and that would make the number of good dies lower. A die that is twice as big will result in an overall 75%-80% decrease in the number dies per wafer. That includes wasted space along the sides of the wafer. Whereas AMD is just continuing to produce quad-core dies all day long, and if it wants an octa-core, it just gives you two of them! Yousuf Khan |
#64
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Intel CPU prices going up?
Yousuf Khan wrote:
On 10/23/2018 1:45 PM, VanguardLH wrote: You're obviously making guesses. Demand hasn't gone up despite all the news pundits saying otherwise. "Apparently" is another guess. We all are, as Intel obviously won't tell us. Anything you or I say will just be guesses. No point in mentioning it even, as it's assumed. But we all have our years of experience to draw on, and our guesses can be somewhat accurate. Intel is having to produce six- and eight-core processors when it's used to producing only quad-core maximum. It produced a lot of good dies of quad-core, but a hex- or octa-core will have larger dies, and that would make the number of good dies lower. A die that is twice as big will result in an overall 75%-80% decrease in the number dies per wafer. That includes wasted space along the sides of the wafer. Whereas AMD is just continuing to produce quad-core dies all day long, and if it wants an octa-core, it just gives you two of them! Yousuf Khan I think the Ryzen is a single die with two CCX on it. So your yield is for an 8 core chips. https://wccftech.com/amd-zeppelin-so...4-cores-rumor/ Paul |
#65
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Intel CPU prices going up?
On Thu, 18 Oct 2018 13:57:43 +0100, Java Jive
wrote: I thought this OT thread had ended but coincidntally I have just come across this bit of breaking news (see below) That's all very well but the BBC in particular are notorious for selecting only one side of the argument. The people who make such claims nearly always turn out to have a denialist agenda unsupported by any science. The BBC have had a long-standing policy of impartiality on this as on other issues: https://www.bbc.co.uk/bbctrust/our_w...artiality.html p40 reads: "Climate change is another subject where dissenters can be unpopular. There may be now a broad scientific consensus that climate change is definitely happening, and that it is at least predominantly man-made. But the second part of that consensus still has some intelligent and articulate opponents, even if a small minority. Jana Bennett, Director of Television, argued at the seminar that ‘as journalists, we have the duty to understand where the weight of the evidence has got to. And that is an incredibly important thing in terms of public understanding – equipping citizens, informing the public as to what’s going to happen or not happen possibly over the next couple of hundred years.’ --- etc snipped --- See https://www.pressgazette.co.uk/ofcom...7abba-20141501 or http://tinyurl.com/ybc7m45u "Ofcom to review depth of analysis and impartiality of BBC news and current affairs output" 'Ofcom' being the UK's communications regulator. -- Regards, Eric Stevens |
#66
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Intel CPU prices going up?
Eric Stevens wrote:
On Thu, 18 Oct 2018 13:57:43 +0100, Java Jive wrote: I thought this OT thread had ended but coincidntally I have just come across this bit of breaking news (see below) That's all very well but the BBC in particular are notorious for selecting only one side of the argument. The people who make such claims nearly always turn out to have a denialist agenda unsupported by any science. The BBC have had a long-standing policy of impartiality on this as on other issues: https://www.bbc.co.uk/bbctrust/our_w...artiality.html p40 reads: "Climate change is another subject where dissenters can be unpopular. There may be now a broad scientific consensus that climate change is definitely happening, and that it is at least predominantly man-made. But the second part of that consensus still has some intelligent and articulate opponents, even if a small minority. Jana Bennett, Director of Television, argued at the seminar that ‘as journalists, we have the duty to understand where the weight of the evidence has got to. And that is an incredibly important thing in terms of public understanding – equipping citizens, informing the public as to what’s going to happen or not happen possibly over the next couple of hundred years.’ --- etc snipped --- See https://www.pressgazette.co.uk/ofcom...7abba-20141501 or http://tinyurl.com/ybc7m45u "Ofcom to review depth of analysis and impartiality of BBC news and current affairs output" 'Ofcom' being the UK's communications regulator. And? This is a sign that the media environment is being overseen. This is good thing. It could well find there's no problem and if it does find issues then the BBC will adapt. None of the skeptic and denialist websites are regulated at all, so you can pretty much guarantee they're not impartial. I'd choose the BBC over them any time. Although, as a scientist i prefer going to the source publication if i want to read the details. From the above link: "More than seven in ten (73 per cent) of those surveyed in Ofcom’s latest News Consumption in the UK report rated the BBC highly for providing high-quality, trustworthy and accurate news. Meanwhile more than eight in ten (83 per cent) rated its current affairs TV programmes highly for providing high-quality commentary, investigative journalism, and for helping them understand what is going on in the world." |
#67
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Intel CPU prices going up?
On 10/24/2018 4:39 AM, Paul wrote:
I think the Ryzen is a single die with two CCX on it. So your yield is for an 8 core chips. https://wccftech.com/amd-zeppelin-so...4-cores-rumor/ Paul The CCX's are separate dies. That's why AMD is able to produce so many of them for cheaply. In fact, it's given AMD a real advantage over Intel, as Intel can't easily produce multi-chip modules yet. It needs a major design overhaul to achieve that. AMD probably already took the pain during the Bulldozer years, ironed out all of the necessary steps to produce MCM modules. Even though Bulldozer weren't MCM's, they had a lot of features similar to MCM's. Yousuf Khan |
#68
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Intel CPU prices going up?
Yousuf Khan wrote:
On 10/24/2018 4:39 AM, Paul wrote: I think the Ryzen is a single die with two CCX on it. So your yield is for an 8 core chips. https://wccftech.com/amd-zeppelin-so...4-cores-rumor/ Paul The CCX's are separate dies. That's why AMD is able to produce so many of them for cheaply. In fact, it's given AMD a real advantage over Intel, as Intel can't easily produce multi-chip modules yet. It needs a major design overhaul to achieve that. AMD probably already took the pain during the Bulldozer years, ironed out all of the necessary steps to produce MCM modules. Even though Bulldozer weren't MCM's, they had a lot of features similar to MCM's. Yousuf Khan Looks like one silicon die to me. There are two IP blocks on it. http://i.imgur.com/9TIpxDY.jpg On the mobile part, there is one IP block (4 cores/8 threads) https://tablet-news.com/wp-content/u...l-page-037.jpg https://www.anandtech.com/show/11964...nd-updated-zen "While Ryzen, Threadripper, and EPYC have used the 8-core Zeppelin building block for their products, the laptop side of the equation will combine the new high-performance Zen core with the latest Vega graphics in a single piece of silicon. Quad-Core with SMT Vega 10 - 10 CUs (640 SPs) " Die shot of the mobile part, with one CCX on the left, GPU on the right. https://images.anandtech.com/doci/11...52_678x452.jpg HTH, Paul |
#69
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Intel CPU prices going up?
On 11/13/2018 6:16 PM, Paul wrote:
Looks like one silicon die to me. There are two IP blocks on it. http://i.imgur.com/9TIpxDY.jpg On the mobile part, there is one IP block (4 cores/8 threads) https://tablet-news.com/wp-content/u...l-page-037.jpg https://www.anandtech.com/show/11964...nd-updated-zen "While Ryzen, Threadripper, and EPYC have used the 8-core Zeppelin building block for their products, the laptop side of the equation will combine the new high-performance Zen core with the latest Vega graphics in a single piece of silicon. Quad-Core with SMT Vega 10 - 10 CUs (640 SPs) " Die shot of the mobile part, with one CCX on the left, GPU on the right. https://images.anandtech.com/doci/11...52_678x452.jpg HTH, Paul The Ryzens use 4-core CCX's, while the Threadrippers use 8-core CCX's. Here's the Ryzen block diagram: https://www.reddit.com/r/Amd/comment..._44_33_and_22/ |
#70
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Intel CPU prices going up?
Yousuf Khan wrote:
On 11/13/2018 6:16 PM, Paul wrote: Looks like one silicon die to me. There are two IP blocks on it. http://i.imgur.com/9TIpxDY.jpg On the mobile part, there is one IP block (4 cores/8 threads) https://tablet-news.com/wp-content/u...l-page-037.jpg https://www.anandtech.com/show/11964...nd-updated-zen "While Ryzen, Threadripper, and EPYC have used the 8-core Zeppelin building block for their products, the laptop side of the equation will combine the new high-performance Zen core with the latest Vega graphics in a single piece of silicon. Quad-Core with SMT Vega 10 - 10 CUs (640 SPs) " Die shot of the mobile part, with one CCX on the left, GPU on the right. https://images.anandtech.com/doci/11...52_678x452.jpg HTH, Paul The Ryzens use 4-core CCX's, while the Threadrippers use 8-core CCX's. Here's the Ryzen block diagram: https://www.reddit.com/r/Amd/comment..._44_33_and_22/ And that's exactly what my quotes above, provide. The Ryzen product (APU flavor), uses a new die, with a 4 core CCX and a GPU. The "IP" (Intellectual Property) block size is a 4 core CCX, which is getting reused. In the Zeppelin core, two 4 core CCX IP blocks are combined on one 8 core die. The 8 core die is replicated as four dice in an Epyc. This means they're manufacturing 8 core parts on the silicon wafer. There is a grand total of two die designs. Ryzen as APU 4 core CCX + GPU on a single die --- A unique design Ryzen desktop two 4 core CCX Zepplin in a single die \ \ Threadripper two dice of the "Ryzen desktop" persuasion \ The idea two dummy dice (replaced by working dice \ is to in the next generation, dice don't have RAM / reuse connected). / the same Epyc four dice of the "Ryzen desktop" persuasion / silicon die So they are required to yield 8 core component parts. To make some of the more profitable packaged products. This diagram is an eight core silicon die. The red line, is an architectural shortcoming, not a "snip point". https://external-preview.redd.it/ynh...f106cb9 dae33 The die is one continuous thing. http://i.imgur.com/le2atYb.jpg Paul |
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